CML Market Morning Brief

The producer index still points to December cargoes. No new comparable cargo period or revision was verified. Offers are USD5.10 per tonne-unit for CML, USD5.00 and USD4.45 for South32 Australia and South Africa, USD4.90 for Comilog, and USD4.35 each for Jupiter and EMMT. The table retains each notice date, specification and trade basis. The outlook still starts on November 8, with checkpoints on December 8, January 7 and February 6. The owner-named Ian deep learning forecast model uses deterministic quote anchors and grade rules and has not been trained or backtested.

Rows retain actual notice and cargo periods. A November 5 original newsflash confirms EMMT December Mn36% minimum SA semi-carbonate lump at USD4.35/tonne-unit, up0.05; trade term, Fe and SiO2 are unstated. CML, both South32 products and Jupiter retain November4 December notices; Comilog retains November2 December. The +30/+60/+90 analytical dates are December8, January7 and February6 from November8, not newly announced cargo offers.

The owner-named Ian deep learning forecast model is deterministic quote-anchor and grade-rule analysis, untrained and unbacktested. This review covers notice dates August 10 to November 8. Compatible monthly changes use a median and 50% damping at each 30-day step. CML uses only the Mn44 November 4.85 and December 5.10 rows visible in this original, separately from earlier >44 and Fe/SiO2 conditions. South32 retains its grade-unspecified quote-product segments. Jupiter lacks a November observation, so December 4.35 uses persistence without momentum across the gap. The Comilog quote-product alias does not backfill 44.5% into earlier originals without assays.

Conditional CML models still use Comilog 4.90: 43L 4.95, 40L 4.45 and 40F 4.25; 46L 5.10 is hypothetical. A numerical coincidence does not make the latter an actual CML offer. Nominal grades are not shipment assays; Fe/P, moisture, payability and final contract adjustments are excluded. Source USD/tonne-unit is not confirmed dry basis. CIF China does not establish Tianjin CIF, and the South32 SA trade term is unverified. Swipe horizontally on a narrow screen. 40F applies only to eligible fines; Mn above 40% is ineligible.

Four spot and four exchange indicators have November 11 observations. Tianjin CML lump rose by CNY0.2 at the lower end and CNY0.3 at the upper end per dry tonne-unit. The source marks an increase of CNY0.2. The Gabon, semi-carbonate and Inner Mongolia 6517 endpoints held. Six indicators retain their latest verified dates. Inner Mongolia full cost and SM701 top-20 net shorts remain unavailable.

CNY/dmtu = yuan per dry tonne-unit; port ore is rail including tax. Alloy cash quotes are ex-works including tax. Steel tender payment and delivery terms follow the cited original and may differ from cash ex-works quotes. Weekly supply and steel-demand samples differ. Range changes compare endpoints. Futures price change is versus previous settlement; open-interest changes are contracts. Warrants are registered only, five tonnes each.

GMA put Tianjin Mn45-46% CML lump at CNY41.7-42/dmtu on a tax-inclusive rail basis, against CNY41.5-41.7 on November 10. The source’s increase of CNY0.2 matches the change at the lower end, while the upper end gained CNY0.3. Qinzhou was CNY42/dmtu for the same grade. The December Mn44% USD offer remains USD5.10 per tonne-unit CIF from the November 4 notice.

Gabon Mn45%, Fe5% lump held at CNY39.2-39.5/dmtu on a tax-inclusive rail basis in Tianjin on November 11. Comilog’s December Mn44.5% offer retains the November 2 notice at USD4.90 per tonne-unit CIF China. The notice does not name Tianjin. The port range describes spot transactions, while the cargo offer anchors the conditional USD values.

Tianjin Mn36-37%, Fe5% semi-carbonate lump held at CNY34.2-34.5/dmtu on November 11. GMA showed a dash in its change field. Qinzhou was CNY35.5-36/dmtu for the same grade. December offers retain their individual specifications at USD4.45 per tonne-unit for South32 South Africa and USD4.35 each for Jupiter and EMMT.

The latest verified five-port survey puts manganese ore stocks at 6.175 million tonnes on November 6, up 208,000 tonnes on the week. It was published on November 9. Tianjin and Qinzhou held the largest stocks in that survey, at 4.975 million and 918,000 tonnes respectively. A newer comparable total was unavailable.

Using the Comilog benchmark C, the conditional values are C+0.05 for 43L, C−0.45 for 40L and C−0.65 for eligible 40F. The 46L scenario is hypothetical at C+0.20. The 43L grade is unpenalized from 42% to 43% Mn. From 41% to 42%, the reduction is pro rata at 2% per full Mn point. Below 41%, the applicable 40L fallback creates a price step. The 40F rule requires eligible fines and excludes Mn above 40%. The estimates exclude Fe, P, moisture, payability and final contract adjustments.

Inner Mongolia 6517 stayed at CNY5,630-5,680/t, cash ex-works including tax, on November 11. The accessible November 11 Mysteel cost article did not provide a verifiable comparable full-cost table for Inner Mongolia. The latest verified HBIS tender remains October 16 at CNY5,980/t for 22,250 tonnes on that tender’s payment and delivery terms.

Finished stocks at 63 independent SiMn producers were 370,000 tonnes on November 5, up 8,000 from the prior survey. The November 5 supply report shows daily production of 26,610 tonnes. Its accessible original stops before the weekly supply and five-steel-category demand totals. The ledger therefore retains 189,945 and 110,609 tonnes respectively from October 1.

SM701 closed at CNY5,880/t on November 11, up CNY2 or 0.03% against the previous settlement and up CNY4 against the previous close. The day’s settlement was CNY5,876/t. Main-contract open interest fell by 24,728 to 275,044 contracts. Open interest across all 12 SiMn futures fell by 23,048 to 559,345, excluding options.

Registered SiMn warrants held at 16,843 on November 11, equivalent to 84,215 tonnes at five tonnes per warrant. The exchange listed 1,961 effective forecasts separately. CNFEOL indexed the day’s position rankings, with member access required for the underlying table. SM701 top-20 net shorts remain unverified.

Industrial News reported on November 11 that K+S Potash Canada awarded Worley a two-year field construction contract for a compaction building and power distribution at its Bethune mine in Saskatchewan. The report did not give a contract value or commissioning date. The Northern Miner reported the same day that Memorial University in Newfoundland is developing a master’s programme in mining and mineral processing. Both items are seven-day industry context because exact publication times are unverified.